00:00 | It’s time now for Tom Keene, Bloomberg Editor-at-Large and host of Bloomberg Surveillance right here on Bloomberg Radio… |
00:05 | …and, Tom, our focus today is what is really going on with the economy? What do you mean by that? |
00:09 | Well, you look at equities bonds, currencies, commodities, you can see not much is going on. |
00:13 | -When you look at the spread market… -Because we’re stuck in a range? |
00:16 | Yeah, it’s just range-bound trading and all that, but you look at the spread market, there’s been a big, big improvement. |
00:20 | Let’s go to a chart right away. The Bloomberg financials’ conditions index, Michael Rosenberg and our team put this together. |
00:27 | Above the red line is good news. That was back before the crisis. |
00:32 | Down we go, and then down we plunged to a negative 10 standard deviation’s truly unprecedented… |
00:38 | …and you can see how nicely we’ve recovered. |
00:41 | That’s a set of 10 or 11 spreads. The IMF uses that in their financial stability report as well. Just one indicator things are getting better. |
00:50 | -Sure, one of many; one of the green shoots out there. -Yeah. |
00:52 | What does this Bloomberg financial conditions index track, though, when it comes down to - you’ve mentioned spreads? |
00:57 | Corporate, it’s all spreads. Corporate spreads, immunity spreads, elaborate OIS, it’s just soup…uh, spreads… |
01:01 | …you add salt and pepper, and you can get a picture of the financial conditions that are out there and it’s a big improvement. |
01:07 | -Dean Maki has been relentlessly optimistic… -Dean Maki at…? -… at Barclays Capital. -Okay. |
01:13 | And you know, he’s suggesting here look, things are pretty good. |
01:15 | Savings rate is higher than we believe, when he runs through the numbers… |
01:20 | …and it leads up to a remarkably optimistic end of 2009, and at 2010, that goes to 2.8 percent positive GDP… |
01:30 | …so Barclays Capital really leading the way in optimism as we go into this year… |
01:35 | What is he saying about things like inflation, though? That’s certainly something the bond market is worried about. |
01:38 | That’s a very good point. He’s looking at lesser inflation than the gloom that’s out there. |
01:42 | He thinks it’s overstated. And you get to a top-line GDP which is actually within means. |
01:47 | It’s a very pleasant report, if you would, from Barclays Capital. |
01:52 | You get real economic growth combined with, as you allude to Scarlet, lesser inflation. |
01:58 | Now what are you looking at on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning? |
02:00 | Well, you’ve got George Magnus of UBS, he’s got a more cautious view than Dean Maki. |
02:04 | George Magnus will join us, and Dino Kos of Portales Partners will join us as well, as we try to wrap up the week. |
02:12 | -It’s been a soup of a week, don’t you think? I mean… -'A soup of a week,' that’s a good way of putting it. |
02:18 | -…no real trends here. -Yeah, yeah. Well, we’re grasp – we're clutching at straws here. |
02:21 | Yeah, and don’t forget Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs with a far, more cautious view… |
02:24 | …he reaffirmed negative 3 percent for this quarter a few days ago. |
02:29 | Okay, we look forward to it. Bloomberg Surveillance starts at 7 am, runs through 10 am, New York time. |
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